- Mathieu Provencher
Debt-Ceiling Troubles... again and again
Hi Guys! Anyone knows what is the deal with the debt ceiling that the USA is going to hit soon? It is probably one of the reasons the Fed decided NOT to stop their printing of money (which we discussed in an earlier post). I predict that the USD will loose some strength when we hit that ceiling, but don't despair it should go back up soon after (now that the war was probably avoided).
Congress is due to vote on it around the third week of October if I remember well, which means that markets will get more and more nervous as we get closer to this date. If congress votes to extend it, the panic will be over right away... however, if congress votes not to, panic will increase a whole lot up to the point when we reach it, at which point the USD will be at its lowest (for that event).
A few hours before it happens (if we get there), policy makers will extend the debt ceiling temporarily and markets will calm down again... just like last time and the hundreds of times the ceiling has been increased since its creation (seriously, that was a very dumb thing to put in your constitution).
Let's see if I'm right, and if you make money out of it, I'm ready to accept contributions (the information I just gave you guys is another example of non-rivalrous products I discussed in the "white hats" post, although is it excludable, just like the information hackers can give about security weaknesses).